Is it too much to ask for Daniel Bard to get a chance in the 9th inning, especially after Jonathan Papelbon blew a 2-run lead to the same team the night before? Apparently so. Is it too much to ask for Dustin Pedroia to hit 3 home runs in one game? Apparently not. The laser show could be seen from space last night as Pedroia went 5-for-5, hitting his 3rd HR of the night in the 10th inning to bail out Papelbon from what could have been his second loss in as many games against the Colorado Rockies. An assist goes to Darnell McDonald as well for keeping it tied in the 9th by snagging a near-home run from the top of the wall in deep center.
While Pedroia had the best game of his young career last night, the real story here is Papelbon, who came in to the game with a 2-run lead in the 9th for the second night in a row, and blew the lead, for the second night in a row. With a 11-8 lead in the bottom of the 8th, 2 outs, and runners on the corners, Bard came in to relieve Scott Atchison. Bard surrendered 1 hit that allowed 1 run to score, and struck out the next batter, all on 10 pitches. Now I’m sure that me and a thousand other Sox fans were shocked to see Papelbon come in for the 9th, given that he was 24 hrs removed from giving up 3 runs on 2 home runs in the exact same situation. It was the perfect time for Terry Francona to give Bard a shot at closing out a game. Instead, Pap came in and nearly did what he did the night before; lose the game in the 9th. He gave up 2 earned runs on 3 hits, and was about 6 inches shy of losing it had it not been for McDonald’s defense.
Let’s go to the top of the 10th. Marco Scutaro digs out an infield single, and sets the table for some extra inning heroics, which have been harder than ever to come across for the Sox this season (who, after last night, are 2-7 in extra inning games this season). Enter Pedroia, director of the laser show, who deposited the second pitch he saw from Huston Street into the stands for his 3rd home run of the night, giving the Sox a 13-11 lead. Let’s analyze Papelbon’s past 24 hours up until this point; 1.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 blown saves, 1 loss. Why not put him back out there in the 10th and see what happens? That’s exactly what Francona did. And much to my surprise, Pap had a much needed 1-2-3 inning, giving the Sox a much needed win to avoid the sweep. Now just out of curiosity, if he had blown it in the 10th, would that have been two blown saves in one game?
Now it’s time for the Papelbon vs. Bard debate, which I think may be settled sooner than later. Every season since 2006, when he became the Red Sox full-time closer, Papelbon’s OBP against has risen from .211 to .305, and his K/BB which was 9.63 in 2008, dropped to 3.17 last year, and currently stands at 2.25. Even more concerning is the fact that we haven’t even reached the all-star break, and he has already matched his earned run total of 14 from last year, and has allowed 6 HRs, 1 more than all of last year. He’s also matched his blown save total of 3 from last year. It all comes back to the fact that he is essentially a 1-pitch closer. It’s impossible for a closer to get by in the MLB with 1 pitch; Mariano Rivera is of course the exception to this rule, because he’s just a freak. So many times this season has Papelbon thrown a splitter that doesn’t split, or a slider that stays flat and seen it hit for a gapper, or even worse, taken out of the park. He has no confidence in any of his pitches besides his fastball, which can only get you so far before hitters start to pick up on it, which they seem to be doing. Bard on the other hand, has a handful great pitches. A fastball in the high 90s, a great slider that Manny got to witness first hand last friday, a curve that breaks nicely through the zone, and a change-up in the low 80s; all of which he can throw for strikes. He also boasts a 3.33 K/BB and a .238 OBP against. While he does have 4 blown saves in 7 attempts this season, I believe those numbers would come down after he was given more opportunities. The mentality of a closer is something that can only be achieved from experience.
With Bard still relatively unexperienced in the closer role, it doesn’t seem likely that Papelbon will get dealt before the trade deadline this year. After next season, his contract is up, so they could be looking to deal him in the offseason, or sometime in the middle of next season. A lot depends on the progress Bard makes, and how Papelbon finishes this season, but it’s beginning to look like Papelbon’s days in Boston may be numbered.
I tried to be optimistic about it and hoped that he would eventually find his stride much like Dustin Pedroia did in 2007 when he struggled through April, but after watching Papi lay an egg with the bases loaded in the 12th against the Angels in a tie game today, I’ve decided enough is enough. Ortiz went 0-for-7 in the game; the same game that Julio Lugo, who nobody expects much out of, managed five hits. The Angels won the game 5-4 in the bottom of the 12th, so Papi’s failure to produce was huge. Pedroia struck out in the same situation right before Ortiz came to bat, but he at least had four hits and was a big part of the Red Sox offense earlier in the game. Ortiz hit a check-swing dribbler out in front of home plate on a pitch that was right in his wheelhouse to end the inning and strand three more baserunners.
Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Julio Lugo/Nick Green. While Youk was doin’ work in the clean-up spot before he went on the DL, hes shown he can hit anywhere in the line-up, and I’d rather see Bay stay there since he’s really started to come alive since moving up there. By putting Ortiz in the 5-spot, he has great hitting ahead of him and a solid hitter in Lowell behind him. More importantly, he doesn’t have to deal with the pressure of batting third. The Yankees have done this with A-Rod before and it worked for him. If A-Rod can get dropped down in the line-up, then Ortiz can too.
A Slice of Steve 